![]() ![]() Working against that, there is still a big disconnect between feeder and backgrounder cattle and finished cattle prices in the Australian market. “The US disaster is going to help support our feeder prices in the short to medium term,” he said.Īnother factor supporting a less drastic drop in feeder prices next year – especially in Queensland where half the nation’s cattle are located – is the prospect of more cattle breeders who have been inclined to sell their young cattle as feeder in recent years, electing to hold-on to those steers and heifers and finish them on abundant grass. “Look at what’s happening in the US in terms of forecast tightening in supply due to drought – Australian feeder prices are going to be the beneficiaries of that next year,” one contact who sits on the ‘optimists’ side over next year’s prices said yesterday. Some see the basis feeder figure for Australia next year at around 460c/kg, not far from where the market currently sits – but certainly higher than what the StoneX trading model suggests. This many hep support Australian feeder prices early next year, some anticipate. US live prices have skyrocketed about 20pc over the past two months, now back above the 2015 prices. Some stakeholders believe that forecast low-point in the Swaps trading next year may be being oversold, however, based on comparisons with US live cattle prices. “The other bogey is, when is it going to rain in the US, and when will their cattle cycle turn?” one follower of the Swaps market said. The Swaps price indications next year suggests the market does not expect feeder steer prices to ‘completely collapse into the 3’s,’ Beef Central was told, but there was likely to be an ongoing level of support through next year driven by favourable seasonal conditions and money in the bank from trading cattle over the past 12 months. That trend follows the normal season pattern over winter and into early spring, unlike this atypical 2022 year. The Swaps graph shows next month’s December 2022 delivery cattle (the average between bids and offers) at 468c/kg liveweight, declining to 455c during the first quarter next year, and bottoming out at 435c/kg* between May-July (*this figure amended – it originally said 445c), before edging higher to 440c in August 2023. Grainfed stakeholders using StoneX’s Live Feeder Steer Swaps product clearly anticipate that Australian feeder prices will continue to decline next year, before a mild uptick in August. Looking ahead, there is clear evidence that the market thinks there is further downside in Australian feeder steer prices into 2023. In the physical market, feeder steers +400kg sold at Roma store sale yesterday averaged 460c/kg liveweight, down another 11c/kg on top of a falling market the previous week – albeit both very large offerings. ![]() Click here to view Beef Central’s home-page Industry Dashboard EYCI graph. Yearling steers made up more than 56pc of all EYCI eligible cattle sold over the past week. Significantly, no quotes are being offered by grainfed processors for March delivery, because of the current state of flux in the market.Īlso reflecting the recent young cattle price trend, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator has fallen dramatically over the past week, reaching 948c/kg (expressed in carcase weight equivalent) yesterday, losing 68c/kg over the past ten days, and 84c/kg below this time last month. Forward contract prices on 100-day ox for February delivery are now back to 760-780c/kg, back from mid-8’s earlier this year. Push-back by processors who continue to tear-up $50 bills on 100-day grainfed cattle. ![]() The general rise in access to young cattle as country dries out after earlier heavy rain.The current price decline for feeders is being driven by a number of factors, supply chain managers have told Beef Central: That wariness quickly dissipated as time went on. On a typical 400kg feeder steer, that represents a payout $220 less in a little over three weeks.įor reader interest, the previous, brief ‘chasm’ illustrated on the graph back in July-August was caused by growing industry jitters around the impact of any FMD/LSD incursion, following developments in Indonesia. It has dropped from 518c/kg liveweight at the end of October to 463.5c yesterday – a 55c/kg adjustment or almost 11pc in three weeks. The NLRS feeder steer graph published here, based on saleyards transactions of feeder weight steers, graphically reflects the recent collapse in prices. Since then, the market has dropped at least 40-50c/kg, and in places, more. But that high-point started to deteriorate around three or four weeks ago. After the mini collapse in prices back in July/August when the market was spooked over FMD/LSD disease risk (see references below), there was a rally in paddock-based feeder prices to around 505-510c. ![]()
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